THE
SCIENCE
Climate is a major factor affecting everything from agriculture to mining to the economy at large. Being able to have reliable advanced notice of major shifts in weather activity can deliver major benefits to those with the foresight to use this knowledge. Whether it is being able to decide which crop is most likely to thrive in the upcoming season, how much salt to mine over the summer in preparation for winter or which industries might present the best investment opportunities, knowledge is power.
Scroll down to learn more about the methodology and science behind the Browning World Climate Bulletin™ predictions and our results.
Historical Climatology
Our Methodology
For more than 65 years, Browning has archived over two thousand years of global climate records, from written records to tree rings and ice cores. We examine what factors are affecting the current climate and find the five most similar years. As historical climatologists, we offer perspective, allowing our clients to see what weather and climate events happened in 60 -- 80% of similar years. We focus on seasonal probabilities. planting seasons, heating seasons, not hazy predictions for decades in the foreseeable future. This information has allowed our clients to take informed decisions to protect and improve their wellbeing.
The Climate Economy
How Climate Affects Business
Welcome to the new normal. It is literally a new climate for every global economic profession. When analysts talk about “business climate”, they usually don’t mean the weather. But lately, weather patterns in every region have become more volatile, more extreme, and less predictable. Nearly every industry is facing new weather-driven challenges, risks and costs. Browning Media not only monitors and analyses shifting weather and climate patterns, but how that weather can affect societies, policies, economies and individual businesses throughout the world. This allows our clients to be proactive instead of reactive to shifting global climate realities for the short and long term.
The Power of Being Forewarned
Recent Predictions and Results
Here are a few samples of recent predictions and results over the last several years. How would you have used this information if you had it in advance?
Predictions:
We were warning our clients of El Nino conditions 5 months before an official El Nino was declared on March 23rd 2015.
El Niño conditions are back and should linger through winter. There is a 60 – 65% chance this will evolve into an El Niño event that will shape springtime weather. This, combined with the unusually cool Arctic air mass should create a cool winter in Central and Eastern North America and a warm winter in the West that will bring needed rain to California and the Southwest.
The Result:
From Weather.com
“The West was intensely warm throughout the winter, pushing the states of Washington, California, Nevada, Utah and Arizona to their warmest winters on record since 1895.
For California, this winter was 1.5 degrees warmer than theprevious warmest winter, which was just last year (2013-14). Last winter, in turn, had broken the previous record (1980-81) by 0.8 degree. While these margins may not seem large, they are exceptionally wide margins when considering average temperatures over a 90-day period. The temperature gap between this winter and the third-warmest winter (1980-81) is the same as the gap between the third-warmest and 30th-warmest winters.
The East, on the other hand, had an unusually chilly winter. However, because of a relatively mild December, the East was not as extremely cold as the West was extremely warm. No state had a record-cold winter or even a top-10 coldest winter. The state of New York had its 17th-coldest winter since 1895, a cooler ranking than any other state this winter.”
February 11-20 Average Temperature Departure from Normal
February 01-10 Decadal Percent of Normal Precipitation
Predictions
November 2014 Browning Newsletter Volume 39 No. 11
Mount Sheveluch in Russia remains restless. On Octo¬ber 28 and 30 the volcano erupted, with the ash plumes rising 11 km (6.8 miles) high. This is not large enough to affect climate, but it is large enough to enter the next passing cold front and bring a freeze around the second week of November.
The Result:
Two weeks later, the map below confirms that our prediction was spot on.
Prediction:
From June 2015 Browning Newsletter: Vol. 40 No. 6
The Result:
Six weeks later, the map below almost mirrors our prediction.
