THE
SCIENCE



Climate is a major factor affecting everything from agriculture to mining to the economy at large. Being able to have reliable advanced notice of major shifts in weather activity can deliver major benefits to those with the foresight to use this knowledge. Whether it is being able to decide which crop is most likely to thrive in the upcoming season, how much salt to mine over the summer in preparation for winter or which industries might present the best investment opportunities, knowledge is power.

Scroll down to learn more about the methodology and science behind the Browning World Climate Bulletin™ predictions and our results.


Historical Climatology

Our Methodology



For more than 65 years, Browning has archived over two thousand years of global climate records, from written records to tree rings and ice cores. We examine what factors are affecting the current climate and find the five most similar years. As historical climatologists, we offer perspective, allowing our clients to see what weather and climate events happened in 60 -- 80% of similar years. We focus on seasonal probabilities. planting seasons, heating seasons, not hazy predictions for decades in the foreseeable future. This information has allowed our clients to take informed decisions to protect and improve their wellbeing.

The Climate Economy

How Climate Affects Business



Welcome to the new normal. It is literally a new climate for every global economic profession. When analysts talk about “business climate”, they usually don’t mean the weather. But lately, weather patterns in every region have become more volatile, more extreme, and less predictable. Nearly every industry is facing new weather-driven challenges, risks and costs. Browning Media not only monitors and analyses shifting weather and climate patterns, but how that weather can affect societies, policies, economies and individual businesses throughout the world. This allows our clients to be proactive instead of reactive to shifting global climate realities for the short and long term.

The Power of Being Forewarned

Recent Predictions and Results



Here are a few samples of recent predictions and results over the last several years. How would you have used this information if you had it in advance?

The Result:


From Weather.com

“The West was intensely warm throughout the winter, pushing the states of Washington, California, Nevada, Utah and Arizona to their warmest winters on record since 1895.

For California, this winter was 1.5 degrees warmer than theprevious warmest winter, which was just last year (2013-14). Last winter, in turn, had broken the previous record (1980-81) by 0.8 degree. While these margins may not seem large, they are exceptionally wide margins when considering average temperatures over a 90-day period. The temperature gap between this winter and the third-warmest winter (1980-81) is the same as the gap between the third-warmest and 30th-warmest winters.

The East, on the other hand, had an unusually chilly winter. However, because of a relatively mild December, the East was not as extremely cold as the West was extremely warm. No state had a record-cold winter or even a top-10 coldest winter. The state of New York had its 17th-coldest winter since 1895, a cooler ranking than any other state this winter.”


February 11-20 Average Temperature Departure from Normal


February 01-10 Decadal Percent of Normal Precipitation

The Result:


Two weeks later, the map below confirms that our prediction was spot on.

Prediction:


From June 2015 Browning Newsletter: Vol. 40 No. 6

The Result:


Six weeks later, the map below almost mirrors our prediction.

The Result:


June 9th 2015 Floodlist
Southern provinces of China have been plagued by heavy rain over the last 5 weeks, many of them enduring thewettest May for 40 years, according to China’s National Meteorological Center (NMC).

Deadly floods struck on 11 May 2015 in southern China, when 7 people died. Since then, dozens more have lost their lives, including 10 people over the last 2 days, where heavy rainfall has affected 9 provinces and municipalities.

According to China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, the affected areas are Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou. The Ministry said yesterday that at least 10 people have been killed in flood-related incidents over the last 2 days, including drowning, landslides and collapsed buildings. At least 4 people are still missing.

Historically this has correlated with flooding in the South, particularly along the Yangtze River (which flows to Shanghai) and tributaries of the Pearl River (which flows to Hong Kong).
Rainfall Levels
Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province, saw 89.3 mm of rain fall in 24 hours to 08 June 2015, according to WMO. Huangshan in Anhui province saw 80 mm during the same period. Qinzhou in Guangxi received 176.8 mm of rain in 24 hours to 09 June 2015.

Prediction:


Browning Media March 2015: Vol. 4- No. 3

Despite above-average February rainfall, the drought conditions in South America, particularly Brazil continue. Coffee, sugar cane and soybean production is reduced and Brazil’s major cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are facing potential water rationing.

The Result:


CNBC July 1, 2015
The financial hub of one of the world's biggest economies is experiencing a water crisis so bad that experts say it could affect investors globally.